The consumer discretionary SPDR (XLY), which has been a short for quite some time is showing signs of putting in a more solidified bottom. Is this further evidence of a change in direction (down to sideways)? only time will tell, there still could be more bad news coming out of the woodwork, but it is interesting.

Theodore Roosevelt accomplished much in his life, here is my (very) short “Bad Mofo” list:

#10- He was and still is, the youngest person to become President and is ranked by most scholars to be one of the greatest US presidents. Almost always mentioned in the top 5 of all time.

#9- He was an avid writer, having written 18+ books, many of them critically acclaimed. He also is considered along with Thomas Jefferson among the most well read of any US president, having read tens of thousands of books, sometimes at a rate of several a day, often in multiple languages.

#8- His image stands alongside Washington, Jefferson, and Lincoln on Mt. Rushmore.

#7- He negotiated for the US to take control of and complete the Panama canal (which probably saved our a$$es in WWII).

#6- He was an avid hunter, and as a result, became an extremely active conservationist. Roosevelt almost single handidly started the conservation movement. He set aside more land for national parks and nature preserves than all of his predecessors combined, 194 million acres (785,000 km²). By 1909, the Roosevelt administration had created an amazing 42 million acres (170,000 km²) of national forests, 53 national wildlife refuges and 18 places of “special interest”, including the Grand Canyon.

#5- As a deputy sheriff, Roosevelt hunted down three outlaws who stole his river boat. After capturing them, he decided against hanging them himself as it was against his Christian values. After sending his foreman back by boat, he took the thieves back overland for trial in Dickinson guarding them forty hours without sleep and reading Tolstoy to keep himself awake.

#4- He went on Safari in Africa, acquiring many of the first specimens of exotic (at the time) animals for the Smithsonian Institution. He also went on an expedition in the Brazilian rain forest as part of a scientific expedition, becoming the first to map Rio da Duvida, or the “River of Doubt”. It was later re-named to Rio Roosevelt. During the expedition he contracted malaria from a serious leg wound and almost died. He asked to be left behind as not to impede the expedition, but his son would not have it. He did survive, but lost 50lbs, and never fully recovered from Malaria or his leg wound.

#3- He put together and commanded the Rough Rider’s, America’s first volunteer cavalry regiment. He led them to victory in battle against Spain in the battle of San Juan Hill in Cuba. He stayed on his horse during intense sniper fire to bolster the confidence of his men, and later led the charge on San Juan. He returned a war hero and was promptly elected Governor of NY city. Interestingly he not only won the medal of honor in war, but he also won the Nobel Peace Prize for negotiating the end to the Russo-Japanese war. His son, Theodore Roosevelt Jr. also received the medal of honor for heroism in the battle of Normandy in 1944. They are the only father/son duo to both receive the medal of honor. Interestingly, when WWII broke out, he volunteered (basically demanded) to form a new regiment, and lead it himself to battle against the Germans. His request was denied for political reasons.

#2- He once gave a speech after getting shot- While Roosevelt was campaigning in Wisconsin on October 14, 1912, a saloon keeper named John Schrank shot him. The bullet penetrated both his steel eyeglass case and passed through a thick, 50 page copy of the speech he was carrying in his jacket. Being an experienced hunter, and thus anatomist, he concluded that since he was not coughing up blood, it must not have penetrated his lung. He then proceeded to deliver his speech with typical Roosevelt gusto, with blood draining through his shirt. Some politicians cant even give a speech without a teleprompter, this guy did it with a hole in his speech, and a hole in his chest!

#1- The “Teddy Bear” is named after him. Nuff said…

Some other interesting presidential firsts to…:

• to fly in an airplane
• to be submerged in a submarine
• to own a car
• to have a telephone in his home
• to travel outside the borders of the US while still in office. TR took the battleship USS Louisiana to Panama in 1906.
• to entertain an African-American in the White House, inviting Booker T. Washington to dinner
• to win the first AMERICAN as well as first President to win a Nobel Prize in ANY of the six categories - he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1906.

He also was the first President (perhaps only) to practice Jujutsu, and to practice it in the White House I might add (he used to box since he was a child, and was very good -almost winning the Harvard championship- but later suffered a detached retina, blinding him in one eye. As a result he quit boxing on doctors orders, and brought in instructors from Japan to “roll” with).

There is obviously a lot more to him than his achievements (and far more achievements I might add), and as with most great men and women, how they became who they are is often more interesting than what they have done. I find the story of the death of his mother and wife, hours apart on the same day, his subsequent move to the Dakota Badlands, and his rebirth and return to be very interesting. A similar story can be seen in modern pop-fiction with the movie “Batman Begins”.

This book is a great read, and with some study, it can have a profound impact on your life. I think, IMHO, one of the most important lessons to be drawn from his life, was his love for the “strenuous life”. This not only pertains to his active lifestyle, but also to his sense of personal responsibility, and his desire for constant self improvement- both paradigms on life that have diminished significantly in today’s entitlement minded American society.

His views on conservationism and hunting, radical at the time, echo today in the many private and political arena’s of today’s America. But his views were proven right. His system of having hunters and sportsmen support our national parks and nature reserves has proved very effective, and has allowed people from all over the nation to enjoy our parks at minimal to no cost. Today hunters, shooters, fisherman, and other outdoor sportsman and women contribute around 200 Million dollars directly into the environment each year. That is a sharp contrast to most “environmental” groups who spend the bulk of their dollars on lobbying and lawyers instead, in efforts to raise tax money to support their interests (interestingly individual monetary donations to the environment by environmentalists and “environment minded” American citizens are very minimal in comparison). He felt hunters and sportsmen would be the most responsible for the environment, as they would be the most directly affected by America’s disappearing wilderness. Its interesting to note that today, both the system of responsibly supporting the environment through individuals, and the environment itself are under attack.

There is a sequel to this book, “Theodore Rex”. It is the second in a planned trilogy. I plan on reading that after “Mornings on Horseback”, which is a book about Roosevelt’s childhood.

The markets are still in a downtrend long term, though we have seen a short term rally of sorts, though the fundamentals of those rally’s are a bit suspect. The markets are approaching short term resistance levels and are looking overbought. I suspect a pullback in the near term is immanent. That nearest support zone will be important if it does pull back into it. If it does rally out of the downtrend it would have to be pretty impressive. It is still a daytrader’s/swing trader’s market, holding for the long term is still a painful proposition and takes a fair amount of faith, how much of which is left in the financial system Im not exactly sure at this point…we are still in a clearly defined downtrend.

Median List Prices

List prices are showing a lot of volatility and a trend change is looking quite possible. You can see sellers starting to test that level of support around $650K, and in fact have listed right through it recently. There are a few support levels below that, the strongest being the breakout from the previous high of the last boom at around $450K.

Months of Inventory

Months of inventory looks to have formed a similar bottom to the last boom and is in a clear uptrend. However it does have some room to get worse if you look back to the last meltdown. 97 and 98 were particularly heavy inventory years although that whole swath of the 90’s wasn’t pretty.

Days on Market

Number of days on market has bottomed in the similar support area as the previous boom and is in an uptrend, though notice the volatility and resistance at its current levels. If things get worse I’d expect to see a break higher into the previous highs of the 90’s.

Number of actual sales

The number of actual sales has declined rapidly, and is fast approaching its previous support levels from the last “crash”. Much of this could be due to tightened credit. I expect to see more volatility near the support zone, especially since Hawaii doesn’t have the problems of the mainland, yet…

Sales Prices

Lots of volatility in the SFH sales prices over the past few months, as a top was clearly reached and it went on to form a nice sideways box pattern. The support zone I had drawn on previous charts I looked at has been hit, and we can see a slight attempt at piercing/holding this level so far. If it breaks this level, you can see where the next levels of support are. However, due to inflation, it would take some major Financial Armageddon to reach the previous support zone. More than likely the worst case support zone will be at the breakout area around the previous boom’s high price. But unless it gets very deflationary, it could bottom slightly higher. Who knows? All that we can see here though, is it’s clearly starting to trend, and its down.

Condo Sales Volume

Sales volume, (which is another important indicator besides price) is showing a massive drop off, like SFH’s, it is fast approaching the support levels of the previous “crash”. One would think the volume drop off due to credit problems, and thus expect it to hold this level of support rather than punch through. If you are a perma-bear however, one could say we are in Financial Armageddon and it will head lower still.

Charts can give a good look at what is happening in the now, and give you a great idea of where things are headed. Its important to take into account fundamentals as well however. Besides price trends, make sure to pay attention to volume. Volume is like a confirmation to price. Realtors also are greatly affected by volume, as less transactions mean less commissions are being generated.

This is just residential RE, we will most likely have to wait a bit to see the affects of this downturn on commercial RE, as retail spending dries up, so will go leases, which would cause lost revenue for property managers, and possibly another wave of foreclosures for banks.

Chart Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors

This is a cool little flash game where you control an athlete and you have to manipulate each limb independantly. Its fairly challenging but fun to play.

I suck at it btw.